The first week of the NFL season is in the books and what stood out was line movement. In short, the line movement went in the right direction, meaning the public and the sharpies were correct most of the time. This didn't appear to be the case with the first game of the season, as the Steelers went from a 6 point favorite down to minus 1 because of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers won by 11, and the line movement was even incorrect on the total, which was bet down to 36 but sailed over the total.
However, the first Sunday was a very different story. Eleven of the first 13 NFL games were bet under the total with the line movement going steadily downward. And nine went under the total. What bettors were going by was past history: Defenses are ahead of the offenses this time of year, and games are more common going under the total. 3 weeks ago I wrote an article about how in Week 1 of the NFL preseason the unders went 11-4-1. That was the case in Week 1 of the regular season, as well. In fact, nine of the first 10 games Sunday went under the total.
The largest line movement on a total was the Saints/Browns game, which was bet down from 40 to 36. Everyone collected as the Saints won 19-14. This wasn't a surprise as the Saints had a terrible showing offensively during preseason as they tried to get acclimated to a new playbook of head coach Sean Payton. And Cleveland had all kinds of injuries to its offensive line plus they were working in a very young quarterback in Charlie Frye. The Browns ended up with 186 total yards in the opener against what is expected to be a bad Saints defense.
There was considerable line movement for the under in the Falcons/Panthers game, going from 42 to 38.5. Both teams run conservative, run-oriented offenses that eat up the clock. Atlanta won the game 20-6 as Carolina could muster only 215 total yards (65 rushing). Not having game-breaking WR Steve Smith was a major blow to the Carolina offense, as well. This is nothing new as teams are generally slow to come together on offense throughout September.
In addition, the underdog covered 11 games this week. Dogs often bark loud the first two weeks of the NFL season as so many changes have taken place. Ten teams have new NFL head coaches. That's a lot of new personnel and playbooks to learn. Speaking of playbooks, how about the Lions and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz? Neither team topped 265 yards as the ball-control Seahawks won (yawn) 9-6. Most remarkable about that game was Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck, who completed 25-of-30 passes!
The Ravens' defense, as usual, looked incredibly sharp, shutting out Tampa Bay and allowing just 142 total yards while forcing 3 turnovers! Getting Steve McNair makes this an interesting team to watch. McNair completed 17 of 27 passes for 181 yards and no interceptions against the league's No. 1 defense from last season. RB Jamal Lewis looked strong, and the Ravens sacked Chris Simms twice and held Carnell "Cadillac" Williams to 22 yards rushing on eight carries.
One other thing to keep in mind is the Denver Broncos. Denver's great running game was fine against the Rams, rushing for 161 yards, a strong 6.4 yards per carry. Yet, they lost 18-10 as Ram RB Stephen Jackson had 121 yards, 5.5 ypc. The goat was (who else?) Bronco QB Jake Plummer, who threw three picks and no TDs, reminiscent of the egg he laid in his last game that meant something - the AFC Championship home loss to Pittsburgh. When will Mike Shanahan turn to rookie QB Jay Cutler? I wouldn't be surprised to see sooner than later, meaning before the end of the season. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Al McMordie is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at [http://www.procappers.com/Al_McMordie.htm]
