Betting during the last week of the NFL season isn't for the novice football bettor. Week 17 of the NFL brings chaos for many bettors every year. This is because the NFL teams in contention to make playoffs or they are already in the playoffs with their home filed locked up causing some serious situations to arise in which there is no motivation to win the game.
That being said, the teams who have the home field locked up and have nothing to gain will almost always sit their starters for the whole game or half of the game at minimum. An example would be week 17 of the 2005/2006 season in which the Seattle Seahawks opened as a minus 2 favorite at Lambeau field vs. The Green Bay Packers. Quickly the line dropped and started going in Green Bay's favor with a whopping 7 ½ point move all the way to -5.5 at game time.
A novice better would not be aware of the fact that both the quarterback along with the rest of the starters and major cogs would be sitting after the first or second series of the game would view this as a dream line with Seattle getting 5.5 points. The bettor naturally can't contain himself and therefore throws down a whopper on Seattle. But all the while the Packers are the value play here in spite of having to lay the points. Seattle then has no motivation to win and they want to protect the starters health for the playoffs so this then puts them in a poson that causes them not to give a care if they lose the game.
We hope you are better educated to think before betting on fishy lines at the end of the NFL football season in the future. Always do you research and read the game previews to help know if a team is fighting for playoff position has thrown in the towel or is going to be sitting their starting players. It will make a huge difference and better help you to explain the line because something one will figure out rather quickly when betting is if it looks to good true than mostly it is!
Jarred writes about NFL Picks, NFL Football Betting and College Football Betting at Maddux Sports.
