That might surprise you if you're a casual NFL gambler, but it shouldn't. The Packers are certainly the team in form, and the way they are playing right now, not only will they win the game on Sunday, they'll do it by easily covering the spread. They might even be playing well enough for you to be tempted to buy on the over/under, which looks a little high to me, given the quality of the two defenses on display. Right, that's the obvious stuff out of the way. Let's dig a little deeper and see if we can find a nugget or two to make it a happy Super Bowl.
The Packers thrive on big plays, but managed just two in week 17, a 20-yarder to Donald Driver, and a 46-yarder to Greg Jennings which helped set up that late game-winning touchdown. Things probably won't be too much different on Sunday. The Bears' Cover-2 base defense is built not to allow big plays, so while Rodgers is capable of putting up some decent yardage, it probably won't come easy. Green Bay's offense isn't the one the Bears saw in week 17. The Packers unveiled running back James Starks in the wild card game against Philadelphia to devastating effect. Starks didn't run nearly as effectively last week in Atlanta, and the Bears rank second overall against the run, so don't expect him to run riot at Soldier Field. What he does do, however, is bring a semblance of balance to the unit, something the Bears will have to take account of.
Check the line on running back James Starks for the Packers. It's going to be low because the Steelers are the top team in the NFL against the run. More worryingly for the Packers, the Starks bubble looks to have burst already. He exploded onto the scene in the playoff win against Philadelphia, but in two games since, against Atlanta and Chicago, he's averaged slightly less than three yards a carry. He'll struggle to match that against the Steelers. Even worse news for Starks backers is that he comes out of the game in goal-line situations, so I don't think he's worth a lick in terms of scoring a touchdown. You'd be better off with human bulldozer John Kuhn.
So that's the bad news. The good news for Green Bay is that you can move the ball against the Steelers through the air. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level, and there are plenty of weapons at his disposal. Picking the hot receiver is always the tricky challenge when betting on the Packers. You know Rodgers will get his yards. It's just a question of who's getting on the end of his passes. I have a hunch that it will be the obvious suspect, Greg Jennings. The Pittsburgh scheme puts a lot of pressure on their corners and consequently they are often isolated in single coverage. Their best cover man is Ike Taylor, and I'd be surprised if they had Taylor covering Jennings at all times - although that strategy worked pretty well for Chicago, who used Charles Tillman in that way.
But the weak link is on the other side, and oft-burned Bryant McFadden. He's going to need help covering Jennings, and he might not get much. This, for me, is one of the key matchups of the whole game. McFadden on his own can't cope with Jennings, certainly not for pure speed, and probably not for his ability to work the creases in a zone. Will the Steelers give him some safety help? They tend not to. The other option would be to bring in an extra defensive back and play nickel. It's an interesting idea: being in nickel almost dares the other team to run on you. Would the Packers take that bait? How compromised would the Steelers' zone blitzing scheme be if they played a lot of nickel? The man who knows is Pittsburgh's defensive mastermind, Dick LeBeau, and if I had a bug in his office, I'd be cleaning up on Sporting Index myself. But I don't, so I'm going to play a hunch. I think he's going to play a lot of nickel to try and contain Rodgers and the passing game. Don't blame me if I'm wrong: LeBeau's the genius, not me!
The thing that really hurts the Steelers' chances is yet another injury to their offensive line. Center Maurkice Pouncey, their best lineman by a country mile, isn't going to make it after that bad ankle injury last time out. The Steelers are keeping their fingers crossed, but he has two hopes: slim and none, and Slim couldn't get a hotel reservation in Dallas last time I checked. That means that they will have four backups playing in the Big Game. They've won with a makeshift offensive line before, two years ago against the Cardinals, but Arizona didn't bring the kind of heat the Packers do. They run an almost identical defensive scheme as the Steelers, one based on creating mistakes and turnovers.
Already struggling at the tackle position, the interior of the line will now be compromised by Pouncey's absence. Replacement Doug Legursky is a battler, but he is not a prolific run blocker, which could be bad news if you think Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall is going to be the key to the game. It's also bad news for Ben Roethlisberger, who is going to be hit, hard and often. Big Ben takes sacks: that's part of his game. But the Packers have dedicated themselves this week to improving their tackling, to make sure that when they have the big man where they want him, they'll bring him down. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Ben is sacked six times. Perhaps even more if, as I suspect, the Steelers are chasing the game in the second half.
Given the pressure he will face, don't be surprised if Ben is forced into a lot of hot reads and checkdowns. You could do a lot worse than have tight end Heath Miller being Pittsburgh's leading receiver in terms of catches if not yards. If Ben gets time, however, watch out for Mike Wallace, who has the blazing speed to get behind the Green Bay secondary. One reception could give him more yards that five of Miller's.
I'm also thinking there's an early touchdown in this one. Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy is a graduate of the West Coast school of offense, which means that the first 15 plays are often scripted in advance. Don't be surprised if their opening drive heralds points. That's also the best time to get to the Steelers defense too, as LeBeau likes to take a look at what an offense is doing it - and then proceed to stop them doing it.
I'm not sure if the Steelers will score early or not. Last time, they put together a 10-minute scoring drive on the first series against the Jets. The week before, against Baltimore, they didn't show up until the second half.
Whatever, that will be it for the NFL until September (and here's hoping that the threat of a player lockout ahead of next season goes away). I hope my musings have helped you make a few quid. Most of them have been based on sound logic rather than just gut feelings - but as you probably know, there's very little logical about American football at this level. Next season - assuming Sporting Index are still in business as I definitely haven't bankrupted them - I'll be looking to do even better. And yes, I say that every year........
Sporting Index is unique in that we are dedicated solely to providing sports spread betting. We are recognised as the world leader in its field, having captured approximately 70% of the UK's sports spread betting market. We pride ourselves on our innovation and try to lead the market whenever possible.
