The latest NFL Football Odds has the Denver Broncos only favored by 3 points.
Denver comes into this re-match winning the first game 28-20 last October, and will surely be fired up for their first playoff game since the 2000-2001 season. Though it is true that Tom Brady is 10-0 in the playoffs and Plummer hasn't exactly proven himself to be a "playoff-type" quarterback, I still believe Denver pulls this one out.
On a physiological basis, it is quite tough to play in high altitudes. The Broncos have a true homefield advantage in this game, as they are 22-4 SU in their last 26 home games; in the playoffs, the point-spread doesn't entirely matter too much: as a favorite you'll either cover or lose the game SU.
On to the defensive stats for both teams, we see the Broncos clearly being the better defensive team in this matchup, and though New England has proven themselves to be the late surging team this past couple of weeks, one really needs to look at their opposition and who they actually defeated: Miami twice, NY Jets twice, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay (both were New England home games), New Orleans, and Buffalo. In fact, their only "true" loss (not including Week 17), came to the KC Chiefs.
Another glaring fact is that close to 90% of the public is hammering the NE ML, a fact that is quite alarming. Do you really think Vegas intentionally set this line at +3, +150 on the ML and not realize that people would be jumping all over the Patriots? Denver on the other hand has been the best ATS team thus far this NFL season. They have been entirely undervalued and under-appreciated. They boast a great rushing offense, and complement that with a great rushing/passing defense. Playing at mile-high stadium is like playing in Foxsborough in -20 F, visiting teams just do not win and cover.
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