AFC South Division:
1) Indianapolis: The Colts will have a hard time repeating last years feat of winning it all, primarily because of their defense or lack thereof. Indianapolis owned the NFL's worst rushing defense last year, allowing on average 173 yards per game, but was able to cover this glaring deficiency with a strong defensive secondary, however, the free agent losses of versatile LB Cato June and CB's Nick Harper and Jason David will hurt immeasurably if HC Tony Dungy is unable to plug in suitable replacements.
Offensively the loss of RB Dominic Rhodes to the Raiders means the team must find a backup for Joseph Addai, the Colts also lost the services of WR Brandon Stokley but was able to snag Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio State) with the NFL's 32nd overall pick in last years draft to hopefully fill his shoes as the teams # 3 WR. Indianapolis is fortunate to be in a relatively weak division that includes Houston and Tennessee, they also are fortunate to be playing their toughest non division games at home (New Orleans, Denver, Tampa, New England, and Kansas City) but will have to travel to Carolina, San Diego, and Baltimore. As long as QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison remain healthy this team can score on anybody which means they can defeat anybody by simply outscoring them, look for the Colts to be involved in more shootouts this year. Projected record: 11-5
**Look to play ON the Colts in their September 16th visit to Tennessee, the Titans will have the Colts full attention in this affair because of the fact that Indianapolis lost at Tenny by the final of 17-20 last year while mired in a funk that started by nearly losing to Buffalo in their home dome (a 17-16 win) and resulted in losing 3 of 4 games during this span. A peek into the ole history book reveals that these Colts have covered 9 of their last 10 road games ATS when playing with revenge!
2) Jacksonville: The Jags were 8-5 last year coming down the final stretch with three games to play and a playoff spot in view, however, when the smoke cleared they finished the season with a disappointing mark of 8-8 after losing those final three games to Tennessee, New England, and Kansas City. Jacksonville ended last season with the NFL's #2 ranked defense and returns virtually every player on that side of the ball, the problem is with the offense which has HC Jack Del Rio on the hot seat should the Jags falter again this year in a repeat performance. This situation has prompted Del Rio to bring in ex-Arizona State head coach Dirk Koetter to serve as his offensive coordinator.
It will be up to Dirk Koetter to decide the battle between QB's Byron Leftwich and David Garrard, in an odd move the team also has brought in Tim Couch to add to the QB mix, Couch was the first overall pick of the 1999 draft by the expansion Cleveland Browns out of Kentucky but never lived up to the hype and actually has been out of football for the past three years since tearing his rotator cuff while with Green Bay. The Jags have some talent on their offense and it will be up to Koetter with regard to how these players will fit into the overall scheme of things to come.
The leagues schedule maker was not kind to these Jags with regard to their being the only NFL team with a block of three straight road games on their docket (at Tampa, at New Orleans, and at Tennessee in successive weeks) that are sandwiched between their two divisional games against the hated Colts, the determining factor for the Jags as a team this year will all depend on what Dirk Koetter is able to do with the offense. Projected record: 10-6
**Look to play ON the Jags in their season opening home game against the visiting Titans, Jacksonville will remember well that it was a 17-24 loss at Tennessee last season that started their 3 game losing streak to close out the year and will want to use this game as a spring board of sorts to get their season off on the right foot.
The lines maker will in all likelihood make the Jags a large home fav against the visiting Titans much like last season when the Jags closed as 9.5 favs, however, this year should produce the same result as last year when the Jags defeated the visiting Titans by the final of 37-7, as a matter of fact the Jags have won their last two home games against the Titans by a combined tally of 77-20. Its also nice to know that according to the ole history book these Jags have covered an amazing 8 straight season opening games ATS!
3) Tennessee: The Titans finished the 2003 season with a regular season record of 12-4 but their fall from grace was swift over the following two years as they tallied a shoddy combined mark of 9-23. Tennessee was then forced to purge their roster of 11 veteran players to satisfy salary cap restrictions, thus started the rebuilding process, this process was furthered along with the ousting of starting QB Steve McNair and the drafting of QB Vince Young.
The Titans inserted Young as the starting QB following an 0-5 start last year, while the Titans did finish the season with an 8-8 record, in truth they were very lucky with regard to having won 4 of their 8 wins by 3 points or less. This past off season the Titans purged their roster of RB Travis Henry, WR's Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, TE Erron Kinney, LB Peter Simon, and also lost the services of CB Pacman Jones who was suspended for a year following multiple run-in's with the law. HC Jeff Fisher obviously is trying to re-build from ground up via the draft which included 10 selections this past April, unfortunately for Fisher he may not be around to see if these selections pan out or not if his team has another 4 win season. Projected record: 4-12
**Look to play AGAINST these Titans in their season opening road game at Jacksonville, the Jags will remember well that it was an embarrassing 17-24 loss at Tennessee last season that started their 3 game losing streak to close out the year and will want to use this game as a spring board of sorts to get their season off on the right foot.
The lines maker will in all likelihood make the Jags a large home fav against the visiting Titans much like last season when the Jags closed as 9.5 favs, however, this year should produce the same result as last year when the Jags defeated the visiting Titans by the final of 37-7, as a matter of fact the Jags have won their last two home games against the Titans by a combined tally of 77-20. Its also nice to know that according to the ole history book these Jags have covered an amazing 8 straight season opening games ATS!
4) Houston: The Texans brought in long time Denver offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak to take over the head coaching duties from ousted HC Dom Capers last year and there was an immediate 4 win improvement from the previous season, however, in truth 3 of Houston's 6 wins last year were by a combined 8 points. HC Kubiak will be hard pressed to win 6 games or more this year because of two main factors;
A). Houston did little to nothing to improve a porous offensive line that allowed 42 sacks last year which is an average of 2.63 QB take downs per game. B). Playing behind that pourous offensive line will be newly acquired QB Matt Schaub and newly acquired RB Ahman Green of Packer fame, Schaub has a grand total of 163 career passes to his credit while RB Ahman Green is entering his 10th season in the NFL, thus the question, how long will this inexperienced QB and his aged RB last behind an offensive line that has, on average, allowed a staggering 3.4 sacks per game since joining the NFL? Projected record: 4-12
** Look to play AGAINST these Texans when the Chiefs come to town on September 9th for a season opening game, Houston has way too many loose pieces laying around to complete their puzzle by opening day, I would expect a rather low scoring game as the Chiefs figure to pound the ball with RB Larry Johnson going against a Houston rush defense ranked 20th in the league last year. On the flip side Kansas City should be an improved bunch on the defensive side of the ball and will be facing what amounts to a rookie starting QB in Matt Schaub, A peek into the ole history book reveals that the straight up winner in Houston Texan games played in the month of September has also covered the posted spread 15 of the last 16 times ATS, Go Chiefs!
Jim Campbell runs http://www.FootballForecastor.com which has been an internet based sports handicapping service since 1997, you will be hard pressed to find another handicapper that has had the kind of success Jim has had, over the past eight years he has maintained one of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping service.
Jim Campbell finished the final four weeks of the 2005 NFL regular season with a mark of 14-5-2 ATS coming down the stretch for a winning rate of 73.68% and for the season in the NFL he finished with an overall mark of 48-33-4 ATS for a winning rate of 59.26% and that includes a perfect mark of 7-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs, Jim has posted a mark of 6-2 ATS over the past EIGHT years with his Super Bowl selecton.
